You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site. [8], The Indian National Congress made allegations that an NGO in Bengaluru had amassed voter personal data, including caste, age, gender, work and education information, Aadhar cards, phone numbers, and more. Incumbent Republican U.S. senator John Kennedy was first elected in 2016. FiveThirtyEights polling averages are calculated retroactively for years prior to 2018. President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday, Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms By Alan I. Abramowitz, Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, 61% Believe Feds Helped Incite Capitol Riot, Not Woke Yet? So is it possible that Democrats wont have that bad of a year? I might give the GOP a very slight edge there, but its very much up for grabs. All thats to say, Democrats may really need to go all-in defending just two seats: Georgia (Sen. Raphael Warnocks seat) and Arizona (Sen. Mark Kellys seat). A consensus outlook for the 2022 Senate elections based on the current ratings of these seven forecasters . People have been trying to predict the future for as long as we've been around as a speciesNostradamus, the Mayans, Miss Cleo (may she rest in peace). In the upper chamber, the party that wins three of the following four contests will be in the driver's seat: the Democratic-held seats in Georgia and Nevada, and the two Republican open seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Midterms (37) So Im sure Republicans will try and use this to their advantage given their current emphasis on tackling cancel culture.. [37] Several state BJP leaders expressed unhappiness over the remarks and felt that it would not help the party cause. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight's editor-in-chief, played devil's advocate by simulating a conversation between himself and his alter-egos, "Nathan Redd" and "Nathaniel Bleu." Not sure which ward you live in? Ald. The same political dynamic has played out in mayoral races in New York City and Los Angeles, with varying results: Mayor Eric Adams of New York City, a former police captain, won office in 2021 amid widespread concerns about crime. Select one or more years, states and race types, then click "Apply Filter" to see results. midterm elections (8). A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. While its hard to determine whether these bills will have some sort of partisan impact, its also very possible that young voters and voters of color have a bigger incentive to turn out to vote because of these bills. However, how much more or less is the real question. Sarah Frostenson is FiveThirtyEights former politics editor. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. That said, I think Democrats might find some success campaigning on Bidens accomplishments from his first 100 days: the vaccine rollout and the coronavirus stimulus funding, specifically. In other words, theyre still a swing demographic, not part of the Democratic base (yet). [4], On 26 July 2021, Yediyurappa resigned from Chief Minister's post[5] and Basavaraj Bommai was sworn in as the new Chief Minister on 28 July 2021. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. [6], On 19 February 2023, BJP leader H.D. ", Political commentator Frank Luntz argues in a tweetthat Republicans' choice to focus on the economy over President Biden's closing warnings about the fragility of democracy is "a big GOP advantage." In terms of the gubernatorial races, the publication expects Democratic governors will lead most Americans. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. But last fall, Los Angeles voters chose Karen Bass, a veteran Democratic congresswoman, over Rick Caruso, a billionaire mall developer who spent close to $100 million on a campaign that focused directly on concerns over crime and disorder. These posters had Karnataka CM Basavaraj Bommai's dotted face with the caption "40% Accepted HereScan this QR code to make CM PAY for Corruption" as a knockoff of the QR code of Paytm. And when Oregon and New York break for the @GOP on crime, something big is about to happen. Includes model-driven predictions for key Senate and House races, polling and district information, and model simulations updated daily. We believe a Republican gain of 15 to 25 seats is most likely, but it wouldn't be terribly surprising if the Toss Ups broke mostly their way, pushing GOP gains even higher. In line with these predictions, the ZeeNews-Matrize exit poll also forecasted that the BJP and its ally would win 29-36 seats in Tripura. [15], Contractor Santhosh Patil (40) who accused then-state cabinet minister K. S. Eshwarappa of harassing him for commissions committed suicide at Shambhavi Hotel in Udupi on 12 April 2022. In this article, I use generic ballot polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections. Is the starting assumption that Republicans should have a good year in 2022? [25], JD(S) released the first list of 93 candidates on 19 December 2022. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. alex ( Alex Samuels, politics reporter): Yes, and here's why: 2022 will be the first federal election after the House map (s) are redrawn. According to IndiaToday-MyAxis, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to win between 36-45 seats in the 60-member assembly by garnering 45 per cent of the popular vote. One thing is for sure, though whichever party wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, so I think were stuck in this era of moderates like Sens. Remember, the House experienced a blue wave in 2018, but the Senate actually got redder. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. Heres why the election, at a time of widespread unease in the nations cities, reflects issues that are resonating around the country. It wasn't until he was clocked at the airport that he was forced to fly back home and issue an apology. How The Politics Of White Liberals And White Conservatives Are Shaped By Whiteness Read more. For example, the North Carolina and Pennsylvania seats (both previously held by Republicans) might be easier grabs next year since their 2020 margins were so close. ", In his final House forecast for The Cook Political Report, analystDavid Wassermanpreviews for Politico Playbook that"heading into Election Day, 212 seats are at least Lean Republican, 188 seats are at least Lean Democrat, and there are 35 Toss Ups. Every product was carefully curated by an Esquire editor. See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. You can use the city's "Ward Finder" tool here. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast. So that onethat spooks me to this day. This content is imported from twitter. My informal tracking of special election results so far about two dozen mostly legislative elections, so not a huge sample size shows that neither party is significantly overperforming its 2016 presidential performance. It focuses on generating employment, luring capital, growing tourism, and fostering social peace. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. sarah: Lets talk about big picture strategy, then, and where that leaves us moving forward. No, they didn't call him Richard Branson by name, but even Virgin Atlantic was quick to notice that a 2008 episode of a billionaire in space looked remarkably similar to Richard Branson, who boarded a plane in 2021 (for real) and headed into the stratosphere, reaching 53 miles up and floating with a crew of Virgin employees. Your Privacy Choices: Opt Out of Sale/Targeted Ads. Lets start big picture. Harry Osterman, who had been on the council since 2011. According to a recent report by the Democratic data firm Catalist, college-educated white voters only voted for Biden 54 percent to 46 percent (based on the two-party vote). Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country. How should we factor that in when thinking about 2022? Kumaraswamy sworn in as chief minister", "Congress-JD(S) coalition government loses trust vote in Karnataka", "Yediyurappa takes oath as Karnataka CM for fourth time, to face crucial floor test on Monday", "Karnataka CM B.S. sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Were still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. For many voters, it may be coming too late. [21], According to political analysts, with Karnataka polls nearing, the BJP is raking up more and more communal issues to divide people and polarise the votes. Based on the House results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 1.7 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.6 seats. 2022 Midterm Elections. Additionally, a total of 10 contenders are vying for the 48th ward seat of Ald. So there may be more of a red wave this year than we think. This is who we think will win. ", Wasserman also tweetedthat "it's possible Tuesday could be a big GOP wave in both chambers, but [to be honest] there's not much high-quality data to support narrative the 'bottom has fallen out' for House Ds. [2], In July 2019, the coalition government collapsed due to resignations by several members of INC and JD(S) in the assembly. 2022 Election Forecast: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Advertisement We rated every race in play in 2022. [42] Police started cracking down on Congress' PayCM campaign against the alleged corruption in the Bommai ministry upon the entry of the Bharat Jodo Yatra. House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. [49] A road campaign across the Old Mysore region, it has been witnessing a huge turnout in the southern region of the state. The table below the map lists the governors of all 50 states, tabbed by the next election year. v. t. e. The 2022 United States Senate election in Louisiana was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Louisiana. Sources: The Cook Political Report, Polls, U.S. House of Representatives. His latest book,The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, was released in 2018 by Yale University Press. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. Still, it's anyone's guess what is going to happen on Tuesday night. The yatra had huge crowds throughout the state,[40][41] galvanising the party cadre and increasing morale of party workers, according to political experts. But if Republicans make the midterms about wokeness and then have a good election night, it could make pundits infer a causation that isnt necessarily there, and that could affect the national discourse on race as well as both parties positioning in 2024. geoffrey.skelley: Hear, hear, Nathaniel. sarah: Were getting ahead of ourselves with the Senate, Geoffrey! By: ABP News Bureau | Updated at : 02 Mar 2023 08:11 AM (IST). In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. Why Chicagos Mayoral Election Matters, Even if You Dont Live in Chicago, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/us/chicago-mayor-election-issues.html. related: Feb. 28, 2023. State Senate Interactive Map State House Interactive Map 2022 Election Results. Democrats are hoping to maintain their narrow control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party thats not in the White House. 2022 Senate Elections (51) Their April poll found that 81 percent of Democrats were at least somewhat enthusiastic about voting in the 2022 midterms, compared to 72 percent of Republicans. sarah: That certainly seems to be the big question heading into 2022, Nathaniel. The line in each graph is the regression line generated by the equations in Table 2. Republicans must defend more seats than Democrats in 2022, but the Senate is often a more complicated story. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski controlling every bills fate for at least a while longer. nrakich: Yeah, this is a big caveat to all the doom and gloom for Democrats. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. alex: Nathaniel has done a great job writing about this, but I think the new voting laws (both the restrictive ones and the expansive ones) should be a factor we examine, too. As former FiveThirtyEighter Harry Enten argued back in April, we might read Democrats current lead in the generic ballot as a slight GOP advantage, given how much polls underestimated Republicans in 2020. nrakich: Yeah, Sarah, I think its fair to mentally subtract a few points from Democrats on the generic ballot polls. If anything, state fundamentals have moved the Senate outlook a notch closer to where the House already was.". What are our initial thoughts? Out of these eight, four joined TIPRA, three joined Congress, and one joined the Trinamool Congress. [9][10], Tensions concerning the Belagavi border dispute intensified in early December 2022 as a delegation of Maharashtra politicians proposed to travel to Belagavi district to demand the merger of some villages in Karnataka with Maharashtra, with politicians from Maharashtra making provocative statements. It does seem a bit too on the nose, but also, Harris doesn't seem like a typical Simpsons fan, so who knows. Any sense of what to expect this year? ", "South First poll predicts Congress will emerge as single-largest party in tight fight in Karnataka", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2023_Karnataka_Legislative_Assembly_election&oldid=1142846958, This page was last edited on 4 March 2023, at 18:08. This has been shown by communal tensions started by right-wing Hindutva groups on hijab, halal, azan, boycott of Muslim-run shops, and moral policing of Muslims and Christians, which have been linked to the Bommai government. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. 2022 Election Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started Republicans are favored in the House. That is, maybe Republicans have a better chance of making inroads in the House than in the Senate? "It's a little sad that something you put in a show as a joke because it was so crazy came true," longtime .css-umdwtv{-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-decoration-thickness:.0625rem;text-decoration-color:#FF3A30;text-underline-offset:0.25rem;color:inherit;-webkit-transition:background 0.4s;transition:background 0.4s;background:linear-gradient(#ffffff, #ffffff 50%, #d5dbe3 50%, #d5dbe3);-webkit-background-size:100% 200%;background-size:100% 200%;}.css-umdwtv:hover{color:#000000;text-decoration-color:border-link-body-hover;-webkit-background-position:100% 100%;background-position:100% 100%;}Simpsons showrunner Al Jean told Esquire shortly after they predicted Donald Trump becoming president. A piece from The Washington Post in March made the case that less than a dozen seats are really in play, and of those, there are more opportunities for Democratic pickups. The 2022 United States Senate elections were held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with the midterm elections at the federal, state and local level, including the 2022 U.S. House of Representatives elections. That is really odd.". ", Silver ultimatelydecided"Redd's case is stronger than Bleu's just because it's much simpler," though "Bleu raises a few solid points.". Use FaceTime lately? @baseballot, Joe Biden (631 posts) That said, even if its a somewhat neutral environment in 2022 perhaps a best-case scenario for Democrats an evenly divided national popular vote would likely produce a GOP House majority. As with the House, the margin of control in the next Senate is likely to be very narrow. @geoffreyvs, Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Anyone can read what you share. After all, the times when the presidents party avoided losing much ground in the House or even gained a little came when the incumbent president was very popular. Richard Branson's trip to space is the latest in a long line of Simpsons predictions. Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez was a stunning winner in the 2022 midterms. And in the House, my new projection is 231-236 seats.". But there is still plenty of time for the national environment to change. ", The Cook Political Report analystCharlie Cookthinks we shouldn't be too hasty to call the races. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. And it could be hard for Republicans to flip the four Democratic seats that are considered competitive Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada. nrakich: Some analysts point to the fact that college-educated white voters, who are pretty reliable midterm voters, used to vote Republican but now vote Democratic. And because Democrats have such a narrow lead in that chamber, that would mean the GOP is favored to take it. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least six of them are shown in the darkest shade. Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts in Table 3 show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot. The House and Senate races have both moved more in Republican's favor in the publication's most recent predictions: Republicans, for example, are easily favored to win the House, with. Create a FREE Account or Login for access to all 35 Senate and 435 House forecasting pages . Leslie Hairston opted not to seek reelection in the fifth ward, with 11 candidates battling to replace her in the ward that includes parts of Hyde Park, South Shore and Woodlawn. There are two Republican-held seats on the ballot in states that Biden carried (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), and no Democratic-held seats in states that Trump carried. In the letter, he alleged that contractors were being forced to pay a 40% commission to officials at the BJP government, cutting across departments, for projects. Georgia Elections Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Georgia Leans Republican Senate Race Remains a Toss-Up House Races Solid Dem 04 05 07 13 Likely Dem Lean Dem 02 Toss-Up Lean. Monique Scott, representing the citys 24th ward, is facing a staggering seven contenders for her position after she was appointed to the City Council to replace her brother Michael Scott in June 2022. Wise are those who prepare via an animated TV series. He also believes that the more important thing to consider is what will happen in the days following the election. All rights reserved. Its going to be hard, as Nathaniel said, for Biden to be at or above 60 percent approval when things are so polarized hes at about 54 percent right now, according to FiveThirtyEights tracker but if he can hang out above 50 percent, that could help Democrats minimize their losses in the House. Its definitely plausible that Democrats successfully defend some of them, but defending all of them, or defending most of them while picking up Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, is a tall order. In a surprising turn of events, exit poll results from three different pollsters in Tripura varied substantially. Last updated Nov. 6, 2022, 9:19 p.m. PST The. geoffrey.skelley: As the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, Biden and his team are clearly banking on an economic revival that will buoy his ratings and Democratic fortunes in the midterm. Nate Cohn, The New YorkTimes' chief political analyst, believes that the Republican's lead in the House is clear based on public polls, and the Democrats may be facing an increasingly tense battle for Senate. @sfrostenson, Alex Samuels is a politics reporter at FiveThirtyEight. Rather, as of May, Gallup finds presidential job approval and three other key national mood indicators well below the historical averages measured in past midterm election years. Most notably, we seem to keep missing the end of the world, may it come soon and swiftly. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. Oct. 28, 2022, at 9:52 AM ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER With less than two weeks until Election Day, Republicans now have a 48 percent chance of taking the Senate, according to. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. But one problem for Democrats is that they dont have the same set of juicy targets the GOP did in 2018 with states like Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota clearly red states with Democratic senators. Generic Ballot (69) The pair presented respective cases for"a Republican sweep" or "a Democratic surprise" on Election Day. If the plan is successful, it may become a model for other big cities that find themselves with excess commercial real estate as remote workers continue to balk at returning downtown. We dont have a generic-ballot polling average yet, but the few polls we do have tend to put Democrats up by single digits. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. As of now, it's considered a toss-up, where the control could either. Another long-time member of the City Council, Ald. When back at full strength there are currently four House vacancies Democrats will most likely have a 222 to 213 seat edge. US midterms 2022 Results Senate House Democrats retain control of the Senate Republican hopes of picking up seats in Arizona and Nevada fall short Last updated on November 17th 2022 at 6:30 am. Seat change calculated by how many seats the presidential party gained or lost based on the number of seats it held on Election Day. Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. [1] The previous assembly elections were held in May 2018. Justin Kirkland is a Brooklyn-based writer who covers culture, food, and the South. Over the past several weeks, Democrats and Republicans have crisscrossed their electoral districts and regions, makingclosing campaign arguments to drum up voter enthusiasm. The tenure of the 12th Tripura Assembly is scheduled to end on 22 March 2023. To prove this, the pair conducted an online survey of six progressive policy ideas increasing the minimum wage to $15, forgiving $50,000 in student loan debt, affordable housing, the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, decriminalizing marijuana and erasing prior convictions and asked randomly assigned participants to read about them in either a neutral, race-based, class-based and race-plus-class frame. Tripura held the Legislative Assembly elections on February 16, 2023, to elect all 60 members of the Legislative Assembly. Michigan Elections Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Michigan Governor's Race Leans Democratic Senate Race No seats up for election House Races Solid Dem 06 11 12 13 Likely. 2022 Election (348) nrakich: Yeah, if the national environment is even a bit Republican-leaning, that could be enough to allow solid Republican recruits to flip even Nevada and New Hampshire. The Left-Congress combine is predicted to get meagre 6-11 seats with just 32 per cent of the popular vote, a significant slide from its 43 per cent vote share in 2018. sarah: Thats a good point. MORE: Here Are 11 Races to Watch in the 2023 Chicago Elections In the 19 th ward, which includes Beverly, Mount Greenwood and Morgan Park, Ald. Has Predicted in 2022 and Beyond. Legislative Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Karnataka before May 2023 to elect all 224 members of the Karnataka Legislative Assembly. However, 2022 is not shaping up to be an average year. . geoffrey.skelley: For the House, Id say its likely the GOP captures it by at least a narrow margin in 2022. Republicans are aiming to wrest away both chambers. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Assuming none wins an outright majority on Tuesday, the top two finishers in the race will advance to a runoff on April 4. Who those candidates turn out to be may offer a glimpse into the direction of urban politics in post-pandemic America. The overturning of Roe also has been helping Democrats, but doesn't seem to have overcome voters' concerns about inflation. [36], On 3 January 2023, BJP Karnataka state president Nalin Kumar Kateel in a party meet at Mangalore said that people should prioritise the issue of love jihad over road, gutter, drain and other small issues. The results in Table 2 show that the generic ballot and the number of seats defended by the presidents party have strong and statistically significant effects in both House and Senate elections. Ten years before a tiger would attack Roy Horn during a live performance, The Simpsons featured an episode where the duo would be attacked by a white tiger. One plan introduced under the Lightfoot administration addresses the high vacancy rates for commercial space in the Loop, calling for older office buildings on LaSalle Street in the heart of Chicagos business district to be turned into apartments and condominiums, including affordable housing. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. And President . nrakich: To be honest, Sarah, Im not really sure what to make of that playbook. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. If you had designed something to reflect it, you couldn't have made a design that would've made it look any clearer. Ms. Lightfoot has crisscrossed Chicago telling voters that crime is down in the city and that her focus on the issue is yielding results: Homicides dropped in 2022 after rising in the two previous years. Emily Ekans, the director of polling for the libertarian think-tank the Cato Institute, forecasted for Fox Newsthat the GOP will flip both chambers based on her assessment of the latest poll trends. But so far, special election results are one of the better indicators for Democrats' prospects in 2022. Whoever wins the mayoral election in Chicago will have the chance to shape downtown Chicago as it adapts to the effects of the pandemic. In fact, a recent study from Yale political scientists Micah English and Josh Kalla found that highlighting the benefits of progressive policies for racial minorities actually decreases support for them overall, and this was especially true for white respondents. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020. Make no little plans, Chicagoans like to say, quoting the city planner and architect Daniel Burnham, whose vision transformed Chicagos lakefront and skyline. CNN's Election Center uses pre-election race ratings for all 435 House seats by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, which provides nonpartisan analysis of campaigns for Senate, House. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. As per these trends, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party is leading on 20 seats and the newly-formed party, TIPRA Motha is moving ahead on 2 seats. In these states, Republicans have nominated relatively weak candidates who might underperform, even in a favorable national political environment.